The following is a comment that fell foul of the Fecaboko censor-monkeys. Nope! I don’t understand either!
We can only win Indyref2 if we have it. The surest way to lose is to let fear of losing deter you from trying.
But it is not fear of losing that is deterring the SNP/Scottish Government. It is fear of trying. Fear of the confrontation this necessarily involves.
Ironically, it is this very confrontation that would be the spark that would ignite Scotland’s cause. If the SNP/Scottish Government demonstrated its readiness to face this confrontation this alone would be sufficient to move the polls significantly. But if the polls moved significantly in favour of Yes, the SNP/Scottish Government would have no excuse for further delay. They would be obliged to act. They would be obliged to provoke the confrontation that they are so afraid of.
Confrontation with the British state is, therefore, simultaneously the thing that makes the referendum winnable AND the thing which deters the SNP/Scottish Government from trying.
There is a way to break that logjam. It requires unity of purpose in the Yes movement. It requires a massive show of grassroots strength such as might both force the SNP/Scottish Government to confront the British state AND give them the confidence to do so.
The best time for this was prior to the Scottish Parliament elections in May. But driven by nothing more profound than spite and tribalism and self-delusion and faith, the biggest part of the Yes movement chose to squander the opportunity to secure a Scottish Government with a super-mandate. This was the greatest act of political self-harm since the No vote in 2014.
We now must strive to repair the damage. A massive show of grassroots Yes strength on 31 August would help and certainly wouldn’t do any harm.
Doing nothing is not an option. Doing nothing is choosing to lose from fear of doing what is required to win.